How you can invest at the end of the cycle

Summary

Not all the world is in the same point in the business cycle, but some countries are certainly later-stage than others. Investors should assess how their holdings might perform in a downturn and look to actively select high-quality securities. A metric called the “financial cycle” can also provide a helpful way to measure an economy’s fundamental health.



Investing involves risk. There is no guarantee that actively managed investments will outperform the broader market. Infrastructure-related investments involve sector and concentration risk, particularly greater exposure to adverse economic, regulatory, political, legal and liquidity risk.

The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This is a marketing communication. It is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
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What a US-China trade deal could mean for investors

Summary

In a Q&A with Neil Dwane, Christiaan Tuntono says China will likely agree to reduce the trade deficit and support IP protections, but not roll back “Made in China 2025”. Mona Mahajan thinks an announced deal should boost US and Chinese stocks, but the markets have already priced in some of this news.

Key takeaways

  • We think China will fix some trade-malpractice allegations to resolve its trade dispute with the US, but it’s unlikely to curb government subsidies or change its long-term strategy to transform its economy
  • In anticipation of a trade deal, investors should look at the “winners from trade” investment theme: technology, industrials and energy/materials seem likely to benefit from lower tariffs and enhanced global growth
  • Globally, we continue to favour a “barbell” approach in equities and fixed income across multiple regions, but we believe it’s critical to take an active approach to help manage risks
  • In this late-cycle environment, we believe investors should remain active, continue the “hunt for income” across asset classes and focus on ESG factors to seek additional downside protection

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