Investing in the future of European renewable energies

Renewable energy - solar plants and wind power in Europe

Summary

Europe’s renewable energy industry is a dynamic infrastructure market that has evolved over almost a quarter of a century. The sector has grown from a dependence upon government support policies, designed to springboard the various technologies, to standalone independent business models that, in many cases, no longer need any state intervention whatsoever.¹ The renewable energy market has become a mature and sustainable business.

Key takeaways

  • Renewable infrastructure investments have a stabilising effect on portfolios as they exhibit a low correlation to capital markets.
  • Renewable energy is price competitive with traditional generation and is now the cheapest electricity ever generated at scale.
  • The renewable energy sector in Europe has shown itself to be highly resilient in the face of the Covid-19 crisis.
  • The renewable sector is in transition towards private off-take arrangements and earlier stage investments with new investment opportunities based on technological necessities.
  • The renewable energy sector continues to be a dynamic market providing investors with ample opportunity to invest while achieving their sustainability goals and meeting new legal requirements to disclose ESG-and Impact-related topics.

Many of the first investors in the European renewable energy market were pension funds and other institutional investors looking to match long-term annuity obligations to stable and predictable cash flows with low or no correlation to other capital markets. Such a profile can still be found today albeit the market landscape has changed.

Today, as more capital in the renewable sector is flowing to traditional operational assets, investors are exploring opportunities across different sub-sectors of the renewable energy space, moving up the project value chain, in order to maintain the same return level.

Thanks to increasing efficiencies in construction and technological advances, the cost of providing renewable energy has dropped dramatically. Solar and onshore wind power are now both as competitive as traditional power generation.

A comparison of the levelised cost of energy (“LCOE”) for various generation technologies in Germany: onshore wind and solar technologies shown as most cost effective


Chart: A comparison of the levelised cost of energy (“LCOE”) for various generation technologies in Germany: onshore wind and solar technologies shown as most cost effective

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: The LCO range represents a range of costs and capacity factors. Battery storage systems (co-located and stand-alone) presented here have a four-hour storage. In case of solar- and wind-plus-battery systems, the range is a combination of capacity factors and size of the battery relative to the power generating asset (25% to 100% of total installed capacity). All LCOE calculations are unsubsidised and exclude curtailment. Categorisation of technologies is based on their primary use case. 

The development of a healthy purchase power agreement (PPA) market is another indication that alternative revenue structures to feed-in tariffs and subsidy mechanisms can also attract new investment in the sector.

In this paper, we look at some of the changes that the European renewable market is going through and why these changes make Europe one of the best regions for investing in renewable energy. We also discuss the different opportunities available to investors in this changing market environment. 


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1 Irfan, U. (2018). Europe is building more wind and solar — without any subsidies. Vox. Retrieved April 29, 2020, from https://www.vox.com/2018/5/30/17408602/solar-wind-energy-renewable-subsidy-europe
2 Gray, M., & Sundaresan., S. (March 2020). How to waste over half a trillion dollars: the economic implications of deflationary renewa- ble energy from coal power investments, pp. 5, 9-10, 18-19. Carbon Tracker Initiative.

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Active is: Investing with conviction

US elections: race is far tighter than expected – again

Summary

While the results are not yet final, the 2020 US presidential race is much closer than the polls and betting markets predicted. Investors should expect some flight-to-safety response in areas like US Treasury bonds and the dollar, and technology may perform well if President Trump secures victory again.

Key takeaways

  • At this stage, the results of the US elections indicate that President Trump is more competitive in key swing states than markets or polling had indicated
  • While there may still be a path to victory for Democratic candidate Joe Biden, this would come through key swing states that may take days to count votes, like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
  • Markets may continue to respond favourably to a potential second term for Mr Trump, focusing on his more business-friendly policies and lower tax regime overall; sectors like technology and financials may especially benefit
  • Investors have reasons to be optimistic heading into 2021: once a result is known, the backdrop of rising economic growth, low rates, and stimulus should be good for stocks and other risk assets

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