The opportunities within disruption

Summary

The world is changing rapidly as disruption impacts every sector. We believe an active management approach is essential to make the most of the opportunities, while managing the threats inherent in this technological and social shift.



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Active is: Anticipating what’s ahead

At the mid-year point, dark clouds are forming in the US

Summary

As a companion piece to Neil Dwane’s global mid-year outlook, Mona Mahajan turns a spotlight on the US, where trade tensions and politics are weighing on markets. Given the increased uncertainty about the second half of the year, investors should stay active, defensive and diversified.

Key takeaways

  • In recent weeks, the US-China trade relationship has notably deteriorated, and US consumers are in the crosshairs; tariffs may be a long-term theme
  • There are still pockets of bright spots in the US – notably a resilient US consumer, low rates and low inflation – but we see growing downside risks to economic growth
  • We expect to see positive returns for the year, but we don’t expect the pace of the first four months to continue
  • In both equities and fixed income, we suggest moving up in quality, favouring more defensive investments with stronger balance sheets and free-cash-flow metrics

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