Sustainable return and risk management in year 10 after Lehman

Summary

Only a very small number of professional market observers suspected a few months after the Lehman collapse that the MSCI World would enter its longest bull market phase in March 2009. Over the last decade, there have been substantial changes, not only in central bank policies, but also in the global financial architecture. How have risk management approaches to investment evolved during this period and what are the challenges we face over the next few years?






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risklab GmbH is a company of Allianz Global Investors GmbH and is the Investment and Risk Advisory Expert of Allianz Global Investors. The risklab brand name is used according to the trademark license agreement between risklab GmbH, Seidlstrasse 24–24a D-80335 Munich, Germany (licensee) and Algorithmics Trademarks LLC, having its principal place of business at 1209 Orange St., Wilmington, Delaware, USA and Algorithmics Incorporated, having its principal place of business at 185 Spadina Ave., Toronto, Ontario, Canada (licensor) (both companies now IBM).

This is a marketing communication issued by Allianz Global Investors GmbH, www.allianzgi.com, an investment company with limited liability, incorporated in Germany, with its registered office at Bockenheimer Landstrasse 42–44, 60323 Frankfurt/M, registered with the local court Frankfurt/M under HRB 9340, authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (www.bafin.de). Allianz Global Investors GmbH has established branches in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Contact details and information on the local regulation are available here (www.allianzgi.com/Info).

For investors in Switzerland
This is a marketing communication issued by Allianz Global Investors (Schweiz) AG, a 100% subsidiary of Allianz Global Investors GmbH, licensed by FINMA (www.finma.ch) for distribution and by OAKBV (Oberaufsichtskommission berufliche Vorsorge) for asset management related to occupational pensions.

853269

Active is: Anticipating what’s ahead

Is the ECB using a misguided inflation measure?

Summary

Inflation can significantly erode purchasing power, but the ECB may be underestimating the true increase in consumer prices by relying on a narrow measurement. Investors may want to ready their portfolios for a higher rate of real-world inflation in the euro zone, perhaps by employing an actively managed mix of equities, real estate and commodities.

Key takeaways

  • The ECB seems to be focusing on an incomplete inflation measure, leaving out a key metric related to housing; unless the ECB fixes its approach, it may continue missing its official inflation target
  • If the ECB factored key housing costs into inflation, policymakers might be able to address the kind of real-estate excesses that have historically helped trigger financial crises
  • An incomplete inflation measure could expose bonds and other nominal assets to “stealth devaluation”; investors may want to consider real assets like equities, real estate and commodities as an inflation hedge

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